consumer demand for oil importing n

consumer demand for oil importing nations decreases whereas the
consumer demand in oil exporting nations increases when the oil
price rises. This has implications on the macro-economy. In particular,
this leads to a fall in world consumer demand for goods produced in
oil importing nations; the resultant is an increase in the world supply
of savings. The increasing supply of savings causes real interest rates
to increase. Moreover, Hotelling (1931) argues (theoretically) that
changes in interest rateswill alter oil prices through producer extraction
decisions if oil in the ground has value. He also claims that oil in
the ground can have value because it is scarce and this can differ from
the value it has as a final output (good) or as an input to production
above ground.
Given that the interest rate is one of the most important determinants
of stock returns and return volatility (or market volatility), an increase
in the interest rate raises the required rate of return, and
negatively affects the value of assets. This also encourages an investor
to change the structure of his/her portfolio in favour of bonds and vice
versa, which, to some extent, affects the volatility of the stock market
(see, for example, Campbell, 1987; Engle and Rangel, 2005; Fama,
1981; Fama and Schwert, 1977; Ferson, 1989; Shanken, 1990). On the
other hand, a decline in the interest rate leads to an increase in the
present value of future dividends. Additionally, according to Binder
and Merges (2001), the volatility of the terminal value of the market
portfolio, which is in the numerator, is a function of aggregate output,
the expected price level, and the price level uncertainty. The initial
value of the market portfolio is in the denominator of the standard deviation
of stock returns. As the initial value of the market index is the
discounted value of the future expected cash flow to equity, the same
factors that affect equity prices also affect the volatility of the stockmarket
or volatility of returns (see, Marquering and Verbeek, 2004).
Furthermore, Pierce and Enzler (1974) and Mork (1994) document
that, according to the real balance effect, an increase in the oil price
would lead to an increase in money demand. Thus, if monetary authorities
intend to bring changes in money supply to meet the growing
money demand, this will affect the stock market volatility through
changes in portfolio substitution or inflationary expectations. Fama
(1981) states that the inflation rate is positively associated with the
money supply growth rate. A negative change in the money supply
may cause a decrease in the discount rate and eventually will increase
the stock price. Therefore, if the central bank buys or sells bonds to adjust
banks reserves and themoney supply, the initial impact will be felt
on financial markets. This will lead to more market volatility or stock
return volatility; for empirical evidence, see Cheng (1995) and Morelli
(2002).
In sum, we notice that the transmission mechanism is through
the monetary channel. The wealth effect from oil alters the interest
rate. Because oil exporting countries gain from oil production and
higher oil prices at the expense of oil importing countries, there is
a shift in the interest rate, inflation rate, and money supply in both
the oil exporting and importing countries which affects economic activities
and performance of the stock market. Hamilton (1983), for
instance, argues that seven of the eight postwar US recessions had
been preceded by a sharp increase in the price of crude oil. Hayat
and Narayan (2011) argue that preceding the 2007–2008 global
financial crisis, the crude oil price hadmore than doubled.Moreover,
several studies have shown that the oil prices have a statistically significant
effect on returns. Equally significantly, a recent study by
Narayan and Sharma (2011) shows that the oil price has different effects
on firm returns depending on the sector to which firms belong
to in the case of firms listed on the NYSE. More specifically, they
show that while the oil price generally has a negative effect on firm
returns for most sectors, for the energy and transport sectors
the oil price has a positive effect on returns. Given this, and consistent
with the argument of Marquering and Verbeek (2004), there

Kết quả (Việt) 1:

consumer demand for oil importing nations decreases whereas theconsumer demand in oil exporting nations increases when the oilprice rises. This has implications on the macro-economy. In particular,this leads to a fall in world consumer demand for goods produced inoil importing nations; the resultant is an increase in the world supplyof savings. The increasing supply of savings causes real interest ratesto increase. Moreover, Hotelling (1931) argues (theoretically) thatchanges in interest rateswill alter oil prices through producer extractiondecisions if oil in the ground has value. He also claims that oil inthe ground can have value because it is scarce and this can differ fromthe value it has as a final output (good) or as an input to productionabove ground.Given that the interest rate is one of the most important determinantsof stock returns and return volatility (or market volatility), an increasein the interest rate raises the required rate of return, andnegatively affects the value of assets. This also encourages an investorto change the structure of his/her portfolio in favour of bonds and viceversa, which, to some extent, affects the volatility of the stock market(see, for example, Campbell, 1987; Engle and Rangel, 2005; Fama,1981; Fama and Schwert, 1977; Ferson, 1989; Shanken, 1990). On theother hand, a decline in the interest rate leads to an increase in thepresent value of future dividends. Additionally, according to Binderand Merges (2001), the volatility of the terminal value of the marketportfolio, which is in the numerator, is a function of aggregate output,the expected price level, and the price level uncertainty. The initialvalue of the market portfolio is in the denominator of the standard deviationof stock returns. As the initial value of the market index is thediscounted value of the future expected cash flow to equity, the samefactors that affect equity prices also affect the volatility of the stockmarketor volatility of returns (see, Marquering and Verbeek, 2004).Furthermore, Pierce and Enzler (1974) and Mork (1994) documentthat, according to the real balance effect, an increase in the oil pricewould lead to an increase in money demand. Thus, if monetary authoritiesintend to bring changes in money supply to meet the growingmoney demand, this will affect the stock market volatility throughchanges in portfolio substitution or inflationary expectations. Fama(1981) states that the inflation rate is positively associated with themoney supply growth rate. A negative change in the money supplymay cause a decrease in the discount rate and eventually will increasethe stock price. Therefore, if the central bank buys or sells bonds to adjustbanks reserves and themoney supply, the initial impact will be felton financial markets. This will lead to more market volatility or stockreturn volatility; for empirical evidence, see Cheng (1995) and Morelli(2002).Tóm lại, chúng tôi nhận thấy rằng cơ chế truyền là thông quaCác kênh tiền tệ. Các hiệu ứng sự giàu có từ dầu làm thay đổi sự quan tâmtỷ lệ. Bởi vì dầu xuất khẩu quốc gia đạt được từ sản xuất dầu vàdầu cao hơn giá tại chi phí của dầu nhập khẩu quốc gia, cómột sự thay đổi trong tỷ lệ lãi suất, tỷ lệ lạm phát và tiền cung cấp trong cả haidầu xuất khẩu và nhập khẩu các quốc gia mà ảnh hưởng đến hoạt động kinh tếvà hiệu suất của thị trường chứng khoán. Hamilton (1983), choVí dụ, lập luận rằng bảy trong số tám sau chiến tranh Hoa Kỳ suy thoái cóđược trước bởi một sự gia tăng mạnh giá dầu thô. Hayatvà Narayan (2011) tranh luận rằng ngay trước toàn cầu 2007-2008khủng hoảng tài chính, hadmore giá dầu thô hơn tăng gấp đôi. Hơn nữa,một số nghiên cứu đã chỉ ra rằng giá dầu có ý nghĩa thống kê quan trọngảnh hưởng về lợi nhuận. Bằng nhau một cách đáng kể, một nghiên cứu gần đây bởiNarayan và Sharma (2011) cho thấy rằng giá dầu có tác dụng khác nhaungày trở về công ty tùy thuộc vào các lĩnh vực mà thuộc về công tytại trường hợp của các công ty niêm yết trên NYSE. Cụ thể hơn, họcho thấy rằng trong khi giá dầu nói chung có một tác động tiêu cực về công tytrả về cho hầu hết các lĩnh vực, cho các lĩnh vực năng lượng và giao thông vận tảigiá dầu có một ảnh hưởng tích cực trở về. Được điều này, và nhất quánvới các đối số của Marquering và Verbeek (2004), có