Bangkok: Global rice prices will ex

Bangkok: Global rice prices will extend declines as Thailand is forced to offload grain from record stockpiles accumulated under a state-buying programme, according to the Vietnam Food Association, the main shippers’ group.
“Exports to China and Africa from the second-largest shipper will drop this year on increased competition from Thailand as well as from India and Pakistan amid a global glut,” said Truong Thanh Phong, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City-based group.
While Thailand’s reserves built up as the government paid farmers above-market prices since 2011, the programme is now short of funds and unpaid growers are demanding stockpile sales. The unrest by the growers adds to opposition targeting Yingluck Shinawatra’s caretaker administration, which has faced months of demonstrations. Phong’s comments reflect concern among exporters about the pace of sales from holdings that are large enough to cover 39% of annual world import demand.
“The rice market has seen fierce competition for the past two years due to the global surplus,” said Phong, who has been chairman of the group for 13 years. “Global prices will decline this year because they’re guided by Thai rates,” he said.
“The price of new-crop Thai 5% broken white rice, a benchmark grade, tumbled 23% last year and was at $460 a tonne on 12 February. The Vietnamese 5%-broken variety is about $395 a tonne, higher than $370 for old-harvest Thai grain,” Phong said, without giving price forecasts. Rough rice fell 0.3% to $15.81 per 100 pounds in Chicago on Wednesday.
Rural incomes
Thailand spent 689 billion baht ($21 billion) in the past two years buying from farmers to boost rural incomes. That spurred the buildup in the inventories to 14.7 million tonnes this year from 6.1 million tonnes in 2010, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The programme is set to lapse at the end of this month as Prime Minister Yingluck’s caretaker administration doesn’t have the authority to extend it.
Given the caretaker government’s troubles in securing financing to pay farmers for their paddy pledged during the past wet-season crop, it seems likely that they will try to increase sales, said David Dawe, Bangkok-based senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization. If they are sold too soon and all at once, the global price will fall, but if they are sold too late then the quality will continue to deteriorate.
Thai farmers blocked roads in the provinces and protested in Bangkok this month, urging a faster pace of sales from the stockpiles so that the government can make missed payments to growers. It may take about five years for the state stockpiles to be sold off and a further slump in prices is possible as more of the grain is shipped out, Thai Rice Exporters Association president Chareon Laothamatas said on 5 February.
Planned sales
“Thailand plans to sell about 1 million tonnes a month from stockpiles during the first quarter,” deputy prime minister and commerce minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan said on 17 February. “The government will clear all remaining payments to farmers within six to eight weeks using short-term borrowings,” finance minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the same day.
“Vietnam’s exports are forecast at 6.5 million to 7 million tonnes this year, with shipments of 1.2 million tonnes seen this quarter and 3.5 million in the first half,” Phong said. “The country shipped 6.68 million tonnes in 2013, the lowest level in four years,” according to VFA data.
“Official exports to China may drop 9.1% to 2 million tonnes this year,” Phong said on 14 February, referring to trade tracked by customs. “Unofficial shipments, not tracked by customs, may slide to 1 million tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes from a range of 1.4 million tonnes to 1.5 million last year,” Phong said.
Biggest importer
China, the world’s largest buyer, will import 3.4 million tonnes in 2014, according to the USDA. Heilongjiang province halted a plan to buy 1.2 million tonnes, deputy prime minister Niwattumrong said on 4 February, citing the province’s concerns about an anti-corruption probe into the programme.
“There’s enough evidence to charge Yingluck with negligence for her role overseeing the policy that generated losses,” the National Anti-Corruption Commission said on Tuesday. Yingluck will have an opportunity to defend herself before the commission determines whether she will be indicted. The prime minister defended the programme in a national address on Tuesday.
“Vietnam’s sales to Africa will drop as India and Pakistan offer cheaper prices,” Phong said. “Shipments were 1.9 million tonnes last year, accounting for about 28% of the total. That’ll decline to 23% to 25% this year,” he said.
“Shipments from India, the second-largest producer, will probably expand to a record 11 million tonnes in the 12 months through March,” according to M.P. Jindal, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA). “Exports from Pakistan may total 3.4 million tonnes in 2014 compared with 3.5 million tonnes last year,” a USDA projection shows.
Harvest forecast
“The global rice harvest expanded 0.8% to 469.5 million tonnes in 2013, outstripping demand of 467.1 million tonnes,” according to the USDA. “The surplus—together with record supplies of wheat, corn and soybeans—helped world food costs tracked by the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization to drop 15% from a record in February 2011.”
“Vietnam’s total output of unmilled rice this year will be similar to last year’s 44 million tonnes,” Phong said. “In 2015, the harvest may decline 2% to 3% as the government implements a plan to switch more land to other crops,” he said.
“The switch away from rice is designed to boost farmers’ incomes, with corn one of the alternatives,” Pham Dong Quang, deputy head of the government’s crop-production department, said in an interview in September. “Any reduction in planting will be mainly in the north of the country as the Mekong Delta in the south will stick to rice,” said the VFA’s Phong.
“We will try to promote trade in China because it’s our biggest buyer,” said Phong, who’s been in the industry for almost four decades. “But China will definitely demand lower prices from us because of Thailand’s selling pressure.”

Kết quả (Việt) 1:

Bangkok: Giá toàn cầu gạo sẽ mở rộng từ chối như Thái Lan là bắt buộc để offload hạt từ kỷ lục kho tích lũy theo chương trình mua nhà nước, theo Hiệp hội lương thực Việt Nam, các chủ hàng chính của nhóm."Xuất khẩu sang Trung Quốc và châu Phi từ người gửi lớn thứ hai sẽ thả năm nay ngày tăng sự cạnh tranh từ Thái Lan cũng như từ Ấn Độ và Pakistan giữa một thị trường bất động toàn cầu," cho biết trường Thanh Phong, chủ tịch của nhóm dựa trên thành phố Hồ Chí Minh.Trong khi của Thái Lan dự trữ được xây dựng như chính phủ trả tiền nông dân giá cả trên thị trường kể từ 2011, chương trình là bây giờ ngắn của quỹ và người trồng chưa thanh toán yêu cầu bán hàng dự trữ. Tình trạng bất ổn do những người trồng thêm để nhắm mục tiêu chính quyền lâm thời Yingluck Shinawatra đã phải đối mặt với vài tháng của cuộc biểu tình phản đối. Bình luận của phong phản ánh các mối quan tâm trong số các nhà xuất khẩu về tốc độ trong doanh thu từ tập đoàn lớn, đủ để trang trải 39% nhu cầu nhập khẩu thế giới hàng năm."Thị trường gạo đã thấy cuộc cạnh tranh khốc liệt cho hai năm qua do thặng dư toàn cầu," ông Phong, những người đã là chủ tịch của nhóm 13 năm. "Giá trên toàn cầu sẽ từ chối năm nay bởi vì họ đang hướng dẫn bởi Thái tỷ giá," ông nói."Giá mới-cây trồng Thái 5% tấm trắng gạo, một lớp chuẩn, giảm 23% năm ngoái và là lúc $460 một tấn ngày 12 tháng 2. Sự đa dạng tấm 5% Việt Nam là về $395 một tấn, so với $370 cũ-thu hoạch ngũ cốc Thái,"Phong cho biết, mà không đưa ra dự báo giá. Gạo thô giảm 0.3% đến $15.81 mỗi 100 pounds ở Chicago ngày thứ tư.Rural incomesThailand spent 689 billion baht ($21 billion) in the past two years buying from farmers to boost rural incomes. That spurred the buildup in the inventories to 14.7 million tonnes this year from 6.1 million tonnes in 2010, according to the US Department of Agriculture. The programme is set to lapse at the end of this month as Prime Minister Yingluck’s caretaker administration doesn’t have the authority to extend it.Given the caretaker government’s troubles in securing financing to pay farmers for their paddy pledged during the past wet-season crop, it seems likely that they will try to increase sales, said David Dawe, Bangkok-based senior economist at the Food and Agriculture Organization. If they are sold too soon and all at once, the global price will fall, but if they are sold too late then the quality will continue to deteriorate.Thai farmers blocked roads in the provinces and protested in Bangkok this month, urging a faster pace of sales from the stockpiles so that the government can make missed payments to growers. It may take about five years for the state stockpiles to be sold off and a further slump in prices is possible as more of the grain is shipped out, Thai Rice Exporters Association president Chareon Laothamatas said on 5 February.Planned sales“Thailand plans to sell about 1 million tonnes a month from stockpiles during the first quarter,” deputy prime minister and commerce minister Niwattumrong Boonsongpaisan said on 17 February. “The government will clear all remaining payments to farmers within six to eight weeks using short-term borrowings,” finance minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said the same day.“Vietnam’s exports are forecast at 6.5 million to 7 million tonnes this year, with shipments of 1.2 million tonnes seen this quarter and 3.5 million in the first half,” Phong said. “The country shipped 6.68 million tonnes in 2013, the lowest level in four years,” according to VFA data.“Official exports to China may drop 9.1% to 2 million tonnes this year,” Phong said on 14 February, referring to trade tracked by customs. “Unofficial shipments, not tracked by customs, may slide to 1 million tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes from a range of 1.4 million tonnes to 1.5 million last year,” Phong said.Biggest importerChina, the world’s largest buyer, will import 3.4 million tonnes in 2014, according to the USDA. Heilongjiang province halted a plan to buy 1.2 million tonnes, deputy prime minister Niwattumrong said on 4 February, citing the province’s concerns about an anti-corruption probe into the programme.“There’s enough evidence to charge Yingluck with negligence for her role overseeing the policy that generated losses,” the National Anti-Corruption Commission said on Tuesday. Yingluck will have an opportunity to defend herself before the commission determines whether she will be indicted. The prime minister defended the programme in a national address on Tuesday.“Vietnam’s sales to Africa will drop as India and Pakistan offer cheaper prices,” Phong said. “Shipments were 1.9 million tonnes last year, accounting for about 28% of the total. That’ll decline to 23% to 25% this year,” he said.
“Shipments from India, the second-largest producer, will probably expand to a record 11 million tonnes in the 12 months through March,” according to M.P. Jindal, president of the All India Rice Exporters Association (AIREA). “Exports from Pakistan may total 3.4 million tonnes in 2014 compared with 3.5 million tonnes last year,” a USDA projection shows.
Harvest forecast
“The global rice harvest expanded 0.8% to 469.5 million tonnes in 2013, outstripping demand of 467.1 million tonnes,” according to the USDA. “The surplus—together with record supplies of wheat, corn and soybeans—helped world food costs tracked by the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization to drop 15% from a record in February 2011.”
“Vietnam’s total output of unmilled rice this year will be similar to last year’s 44 million tonnes,” Phong said. “In 2015, the harvest may decline 2% to 3% as the government implements a plan to switch more land to other crops,” he said.
“The switch away from rice is designed to boost farmers’ incomes, with corn one of the alternatives,” Pham Dong Quang, deputy head of the government’s crop-production department, said in an interview in September. “Any reduction in planting will be mainly in the north of the country as the Mekong Delta in the south will stick to rice,” said the VFA’s Phong.
“We will try to promote trade in China because it’s our biggest buyer,” said Phong, who’s been in the industry for almost four decades. “But China will definitely demand lower prices from us because of Thailand’s selling pressure.”