The fourth factor that frequently appears when there is financialinstability is an increase in uncertainty, whether because an economyis already in recession, or because a major financial or nonfinancialfirm goes bankrupt, or because of increased politicalinstability. Financial crises in the United States in the nineteenth andearly twentieth centuries came to a head with collapses of nowinfamous firms such as the Ohio Life Insurance & Trust Co. in 1857,the Northern Pacific Railroad and Jay Cooke & Co. in 1873, Grant& Ward in 1884, the National Cordage Co. in 1893, the KnickerbockerTrust Company in 1907, and the Bank of United States in1930. In the case of the recent episode in Mexico, the increase inuncertainty was primarily political. The Mexican economy was hitby political shocks in 1994, specifically the Colosio assassinationand the uprising in Chiapas, which increased general uncertainty inMexican financial markets. Increases in uncertainty make it harderfor financial markets to process information, thereby increasingadverse selection and moral hazard problems and causing a declinein lending and economic activity.
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