Public opinion to the contrary, ins

Public opinion to the contrary, insurance ratemaking is not an exact science. The law of large numbers and the experience of the past permit actuaries to make estimates about future experience, but these must be qualified. When estimating future experience, the actuary implicitly says, “If things continue to happen in the future as they have in the past, this is what will happen...” But things do not happen in the future as they have happened in the past; some adjustment must be made to allow for changes that are likely to modify future losses. But even the adjustments to allow for deviations from past experience may be inadequate, particularly when the magnitude of the deviations is greater than anticipated. Of course, if the future differs from the past favorably, there is no great problem. However, if the deviation is adverse, the rate predicated on past experience may prove inadequate.
A major distinction between the fields of property and liability insurance and life insurance has been the differences in the deviation of present from past experience. In the case of life insurance, we have seen a continued improvement in life expectancy. This has benefited insurance companies in two ways. First, since people have been living longer than originally expected, the insurers have been permitted to delay payment of funds, which can thus continue to be invested. In addition, the people who have lived longer than anticipated have paid premiums on their policies longer than expected. In the property and liability field, actual results have also deviated from those expected, but in this case the outcome has been less favorable for insurers. Inflationary pressures, which push up the cost of repairs and construction, rising medical costs, an increasing rate of automobile accidents, soaring liability judgments, and other similar factors have all acted to the detriment of insurance companies. In- flation does not affect the loss under a life insurance policy because of the agreement to pay a fixed sum of dollars. In property and liability insurance, however, departures from past experience have caused severe difficulties. 5

Kết quả (Việt) 1:

Ý kiến công chúng để ratemaking ngược lại, bảo hiểm không phải là một khoa học chính xác. Luật số lớn và kinh nghiệm trong quá khứ cho phép actuaries để làm cho các ước tính về kinh nghiệm trong tương lai, nhưng phải có đủ điều kiện. Khi ước tính kinh nghiệm trong tương lai, actuary ngầm nói: "Nếu điều này tiếp tục xảy ra trong tương lai khi họ có trong quá khứ, đây là những gì sẽ xảy ra..." Nhưng những điều xảy ra trong tương lai như họ đã xảy ra trong quá khứ; một số điều chỉnh phải được thực hiện để cho phép các thay đổi có khả năng để sửa đổi các thiệt hại trong tương lai. Nhưng ngay cả những điều chỉnh để cho phép các độ lệch từ kinh nghiệm quá khứ có thể không đầy đủ, đặc biệt là khi cường độ của các độ lệch lớn hơn dự đoán. Tất nhiên, nếu tương lai khác nhau từ quá khứ, thuận lợi, không là không có vấn đề lớn. Tuy nhiên, nếu độ lệch là bất lợi, tỷ lệ predicated trên kinh nghiệm quá khứ có thể chứng minh không đầy đủ. A major distinction between the fields of property and liability insurance and life insurance has been the differences in the deviation of present from past experience. In the case of life insurance, we have seen a continued improvement in life expectancy. This has benefited insurance companies in two ways. First, since people have been living longer than originally expected, the insurers have been permitted to delay payment of funds, which can thus continue to be invested. In addition, the people who have lived longer than anticipated have paid premiums on their policies longer than expected. In the property and liability field, actual results have also deviated from those expected, but in this case the outcome has been less favorable for insurers. Inflationary pressures, which push up the cost of repairs and construction, rising medical costs, an increasing rate of automobile accidents, soaring liability judgments, and other similar factors have all acted to the detriment of insurance companies. In- flation does not affect the loss under a life insurance policy because of the agreement to pay a fixed sum of dollars. In property and liability insurance, however, departures from past experience have caused severe difficulties. 5