TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE FUEL ECONOMY OF PASSENGER CARS AND TRUCKS 35
that will be available in 2006 (EPA, has delayed production decisions. In general, the committee believes that the Tier 2 NO, and PM standards will inhibit, or possibly preclude, the introduction of diesels into vehicles under 8,500 lb unless cost-effective, reliable, and pliant exhaust gas aftertreatment technology develops rap- idly. A key challenge is the development of emission control systems that can be certified for a 120,000-mile lifetime.
In theory, the bin system will allow diesels to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market, but manufacturers must still meet the stringent fleet average standard. For example, for every vehicle in bin 8 (0.2 NO,), approximately seven vehicles in bin 3 would have to be sold in order to meet the 0.07 fleet-average NO, standard.
These same factors have caused the committee to con- clude that major market penetration of gasoline tion engines that operate under lean-burn combustion, which is another emerging technology for improving fuel economy, is unlikely without major emissions-control advancements.
California’s exhaust emission requirements- super emission vehicle (SULEV) and partial zero emis- sion vehicle also extremely challenging for the introduction of diesel engines. In particular, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has classified PM emissions from diesel-fueled engines as a toxic air contaminant (CARB, 1998). (Substances classified as toxic are required to be controlled.)
TECHNOLOGIES FOR FUEL ECONOMY
The 1992 report outlined various automotive tech- nologies that were either entering production at the time or were considered as emerging, based on their potential and production intent (NRC, 1992). Since then, many regulatory and economic conditions have changed. In addition, auto- motive technology has continued to advance, especially in microelectronics, mechatronics, sensors, control systems, and manufacturing processes. Many of the technologies identified in the 1992 report as proven or emerging have already entered production.
The committee conducted an updated assessment of various technologies that have potential for improving fuel economy in light-duty vehicles. This assessment takes into account not only the benefits and costs of applying the technologies, but also changes in the economic and regula- tory conditions, anticipated exhaust emission regulations, predicted trends in fuel prices, and reported customer preferences.
The technologies reviewed here are already in use in some vehicles or are likely to be introduced in European and Japanese vehicles within 15 years. They are discussed below under three general headings: engine technologies, transmis- sion technologies, and vehicle technologies. They are listed in general order of ease of implementation or maturity of the technology (characterized as “production intent” or “emerg-
ing”). The committee concludes its assessment of potential technologies with some detailed discussion of the current and future generations of hybrid vehicles and fuel- cell power sources.
For each technology assessed, the committee estimated not only the incremental percentage improvement in fuel consumption (which can be converted to fuel economy in miles per gallon [mpg] to allow comparison with current EPA mileage ratings) but also the incremental cost that ap- plying the technology would add to the retail price of a ve- hicle. The next subsection of this chapter, “Technologies Assessed,” reviews the technologies and their general ben- efits and challenges.
After that, the section “Estimating Potential Fuel Econ- omy Gains and Costs” presents estimates of the fuel con- sumption benefits and associated retail costs of applying combinations of these technologies in 10 classes of produc- tion vehicles. For each class of vehicle, the committee hypothesizes three exemplary technology paths (technology scenarios leading to successively greater improvements in fuel consumption and greater cost).
Technologies Assessed
The engine, transmission, and vehicle technologies dis- cussed in this section are all considered likely to be available within the next 15years. Some (called “production intent” in this discussion) are already available, are well known to manufacturers and their suppliers, and could be incorporated in vehicles once a decision is reached to use them. Others (called “emerging” in this discussion) are generally beyond the research phase and are under development. They are suf- ficiently well understood that they should be available within 10 to 15 years.
Engine Technologies
The engine technologies discussed here improve the energy efficiency of engines by reducing friction and other mechanical losses or by improving the processing and com- bustion of fuel and air.
Production-Intent Engine Technologies The engine tech- nologies discussed here could be readily applied to produc- tion vehicles once a decision is made to proceed, although various constraints may limit the rate at which they penetrate the new vehicle fleet:
. Engine friction and other
loss reduction. Continued improvement in engine
component and system design, development, and com- puter-aided engineering (CAE) tools offers the poten- tial for continued reductions of component weight and thermal management and hydrodynamic systems that improve overall brake-specific efficiency. An
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