Onset of the rainy season shows strong interannual variabilitythroughout the region. An increase from 20 to 30 mm of rain in 3 successive days delays the onset date, which on theaverage reaches a maximum of 8 to 13 d, according to location. By allowing a longer period without rain after theinitial event, the onset date is systematically earlier by16 to 35 d, depending on initial conditions. Furthermore, therelationship between the onset date and cumulative rainfall in the subsequent 30 d was evaluated with the bivariatenormal distribution to estimate the risk level that influences the early sowing decision.
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