Climate change is expected to exacerbate rainfall variability so that floods and droughts occur more frequently, with rice crops particularly vulnerable to damage caused by long periods of inundation. Another major risk is posed by sea level rise, with the Mekong Delta projected to see a loss of 590,000 ha due to inundation and saline intrusion, an area which accounts for 13% of today’s rice production. A 30 cm rise in sea level is expected to increase the salinity of the main tributaries of the Mekong River as far as 10 km inland.51 The future effects of increased temperature on water demand, crop growth rates and pest incidence could also be significant.52 Overall, studies indicate that climate change could reduce annual rice production by 2.753 to 9.1 million tons (see table below) by 2050. In the absence of adaptation measures, climate change could also reduce production of other major crops as shown in Table 1.
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