1Paper Presented at 2003 PRRES Conference, Brisbane, AustraliaMacro-economic Factors Affecting Office Rental Values in Southeast Asian Cities: The case of Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok Wei CHIN (Henry) BA, MScDepartment of Real Estate ManagementOxford Brookes UniversityHeadington, OxfordOX3 0BP, UKwchin@brookes.ac.ukAbstract:The purpose of this paper is to identify the macro-economic drivers of office rental values in South-east Asian cities over the period 1988 2001 by adopting the demand and supply framework. The paper tries to use the existing single-equation method to examine influences on office rents in five South-east Asian cities (Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok). Real GDP, unemployment rate, floor space for office buildings, interest rate, lending rate, consumer index and service sector output will be included in examining the movements of office rental values. In spite of data limitations, this research demonstrates that in Singapore and Taipei office markets, rental values are mainly determined by changes in office floor space, while in Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur office markets, lending rates have a greater effect on rental values. However, there are no significant factors in the Bangkok office market. The results also suggest that office markets in South-east Asia are highly linked with development markets, while demand-side variables do not have much impact on those markets.Bài báo này cũng đánh giá nghiên cứu thực nghiệm trước đây và đánh giá trong tương lai nghiên cứu hướng dẫn South-east châu á văn phòng thị trường.Từ khóa: South-east châu á Office Rents, mô hình đơn phương trình, Regression.Giới thiệu:Ngân hàng thế giới ghi nhận rằng từ năm 1960 đến năm 1990, hai mươi ba nền kinh tế của khu vực đông á đã tăng nhanh hơn so với tất cả các vùng khác của thế giới. Hầu hết các sự tăng trưởng có thể được quy cho nền kinh tế tám: Nhật bản, bốn nền kinh tế con hổ (Singapore, Hong Kong, Đài Loan, và Nam Triều tiên), cũng như Indonesia, Thái Lan và Malaysia đã được biết đến như mới2Nền kinh tế thì (NIEs). Sau đó bắt đầu để đạt được mức tăng trưởng kinh tế cao trong những năm 1990. Tuy nhiên, trước đây có kinh nghiệm phát triển kinh tế cao kể từ đầu thập niên 1980. Các nền kinh tế tất cả đạt được mức tăng trưởng kinh tế cao và thu hút một lượng lớn của đầu tư nước ngoài.Các quốc gia này có một số đặc điểm chung trong hoạt động kinh tế của họ và làm theo mô hình tăng trưởng tương tự (Armitage 1996, Yong 2000, năm 2001 ngân hàng phát triển Châu á):• Nhanh chóng xem trong nền kinh tế mới nổi• Duy trì tăng trưởng kinh tế• Áp lực cực dân• Đẩy nhanh tốc độ thay đổi trong cấu trúc xã hội và kinh tế• Tăng cổ phần của hoạt động kinh tế quốc tế• Phát triển affluence• Thị trường trong nước lớn• Căng thẳng xã hội và chính trị• Nhanh chóng nhận con nuôi của mới công nghệ và làm việc thực tiễn• Công nghệ cao xuất khẩu chiếm phần lớn của tăng trưởng GDP• Higher initial levels and growth rates of human capital• High rates of productivity growthThe relative attractiveness of a large number of alternative South-east Asian cities (such as Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur, and Bangkok) is likely to become a more frequent consideration in the corporate investment strategies of occupiers and investors. This research aims at establishing the relationship between macro economic activities and office market performance in South-east Asian cities. There is much interest in South-east cities from global multi-national property companies and property investors. However, there is a lack of relatively detailed South-east Asian property research and data. This paper provides an overview of the office market analysis in South-east Asian cities and methodological issues concerning the application of Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model of office rental levels within five major South-east Asian cities.Previous studies have attempted to employ demand and supply variables to explain office rental movements. There are two difficulties in this type of study. Firstly, the demand and supply variables are proxy variables for the property markets, because there are no direct-measured variables within the property markets. Secondly, the availability and reliability of the data are in question (Gardiner et al. 1988, Giussani et al. 1992, Tsolocas et al. 1993, DArcy et al. 1997).3This paper follows the authors paper to the PRRES conference in Christchurch (Chin, 2002). It attempts to model office markets in South-east Asian cities. The paper gives a brief overview of office markets in South-east Asian cities, previous empirical studies and reports results of an empirical investigation of the relationship between office rents and fluctuations in economic activities.Overview of Southeast Asian Office Markets:Since the 1960s, economic growth in East Asian countries has been higher than in other regions of the world (World Bank, 2000). From 1985 to 1997, the best economic performance in global terms was in the Asia-Pacific region, with the property sector and stock market particularly strong during that period. As a consequence, foreign investment flowed into this area in search of huge profits. However, some countries in the region experienced similar problems, while the accompanying risks were high. Lending to property and over-supply proved to be key causal factors in the 1997 financial crisis throughout the region. (DArcy, 1998).From the 1980s a property boom occurred in most of the Asia-Pacific property markets, which encouraged property companies to continue building. In time, an over-supply emerged in many cities across the region, which led ultimately to a bad debt problem in the property sector, mainly as a result of the shallow banking system. At one time, over 200 million square feet of space was under construction, with a large proportion in Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok and Jakarta, and at the same time there was an increasing vacancy rate (Knight Frank 1998). It is worth noting that rents were very high for certain classes of space, even by international standards. In the area as a whole, differences in the property process, political uncertainty, and the regulation of the financial markets were all important factors, and were significant in the performance of the property market (Chin, 1999).Investment return in property markets experienced high growth in the 1990s, attracting much local and foreign capital. In some countries, an oversupply problem had emerged by 1996. However, little attention was paid to this, which contributed to regional financial turmoil in 1997.
During the financial crisis, property companies experienced severe difficulties in repaying their debts as demand for property in most sectors dropped dramatically, especially in Thailand. New developments had to be halted when rapidly falling currencies doubled or even tripled debt repayments, and prices and rental values falling by 30% to 40% made the difficulties even
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worse. In Hong Kong and Malaysia, property market prices and stock markets dropped by a large amount, and lending rates increased in these countries, leading to further falls in property prices and values, while vacancy rates rose. Singapore and Taiwan with their strong currencies and large reserves were able to limit this financial damage in 1997 and 1998 (Chin,1999).
South-east Asia experienced a strong economic recovery in 1999, marked by strong growth and a robust performance after the dramatic slowdown of 1998. Consistently strong global demand and recovering domestic demand proved to be major factors stimulating economic activity across the region. Capital moved from old business sectors into the new economy sectors such as the Internet and telecommunications. The obvious evidence is in the stock market. Many of the South-east Asian stock markets were then dominated by the new economic sectors, and these became one of the major tenants for the office market, especially in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei. However, the service sector is still a major contributor to the growth of real GDP (Asian Development Bank 2001) especially in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand. Table (1) shows the sectoral share of GDP in 1980, 1990 and 2000. This can provide an idea of changes in economic structure in those countries.
Table (1): Sectoral Share of GDP (percent)
Agriculture
Industry
Service
Country
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
1980
1990
2000
Singapore
1.3
0.4
0.1
38.1
34.4
34.3
60.6
65.3
65.6
Hong Kong
0.8
0.3
0.1
31.7
25.3
14.6
67.5
74.5
85.3
Taiwan
7.7
4.2
2.1
45.7
41.2
32.4
60.6
65.3
65.6
Malaysia
NA
15.2
8.6
NA
42.2
51.7
NA
42.6
39.7
Thailand
23.2
12.5
9.1
28.7
37.2
41.7
48.1
50.3
49.2
Source: Asian Development Bank (2001), Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries, page 50.
An analysis of the office rental movement in those five cities from 1988 to 2001 (those figures can be seen in the appendix), office rents achieved their peak in the first half of 1990s, owing to the economic expansion across the region. Foreign investment flowed into the region from the late 1980s, due to attractive rates of return and the low cost of borrowing. Office investment markets played an important role in the anticipated high rate of economic growth. Yet oversupply problems existed in many of the cities, such as Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, from the mid-1990s. Owing to oversupply, developers were unable to pay off their debts. Then the property and stock markets crashed in 1997, and turmoil spread across the region. Office rental levels dropped in late 1997 and early 1998. However, prime office buildings were not severely affected.
There are some common factors existing in the five cities: the markets grew dramatically from the late 1980s till 1997; foreign investment accounted for a huge proportion of property
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investment; and governments supported development schemes in order to attract more investment. However, political stability played an impo
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