The New York TimesWhat to Expect Fr

The New York Times


What to Expect From the March jobs report

APRIL 3, 2015
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern, the Labor Department will release the latest figures on job creation and the unemployment rate in March.

Here is what you need to know:

Any jobs number over 200,000 is a good number.

No one is expecting March to match the 295,000 monthly surge in jobs that occurred in February. But another month of gains that top 200,000 would be a sign that the labor market is continuing to improve at a robust pace. Passing that benchmark for the 13th month in a row would set a record for the best run of job creation in 20 years.

A survey of economists by Reuters predicted that nonfarm payrolls would easily surpass that goal, increasing by 245,000 workers with the jobless rate holding steady at 5.5 percent.

Don’t worry if you don’t see a further drop in the overall unemployment rate.

As the labor market improves, the millions of workers who have been too discouraged to even bother looking for a job may be lured back. A pickup in the labor participation rate — which counts both those with jobs and those actively searching — would be a sign that the economy is improving even without a decrease in the jobless rate.

Wage growth remains a bellwether economic issue.

Stagnant wages have been a persistent trouble spot in the recovery. Without the investment income that buoys wealthier households, working- and middle-class families depend primarily on wages, which is why they have such an outsize impact on how most Americans view their prospects.

Yet wages have stubbornly resisted any upward pressure, inching up only 0.1 percent in February. Everyone will be looking to see how much the needle moves.

But what about some of the more negative economic signs?

Some analysts worry that the economy lost momentum in the first quarter of this year, partly because of a punishing winter. Retail sales have been weak, despite consumers’ having more money in their pockets thanks to lower oil prices.

Exports have also suffered from a strong dollar that has made American goods expensive for consumers in Europe and elsewhere. Still, some economists argue that a strong jobs report could trump these factors, because employers are taking all that information into account and still choosing to pump up their payrolls.