Small sample distributions of chosen unit root testsNext, we follow Rudebusch (1993) to estimate thefinite sample distributions of the chosen unit roottests under the null and alternative hypotheses. Thisapproach helps us discern which distribution is morelikely to generate the test value. We describe the stepsas follows.First, artificial ridt series were generated for eachcountry according to the estimated models inEquations 17 and 18. The sample length of eachgenerated series is consistent with the original length.To prevent our results from the effect of initial values,100 more observations were generated and thendropped from the beginning of the generated series.Second, for each country, the chosen test statisticswere calculated for each of the 5000 generated series,to establish the simulated distributions for the twohypotheses. Based on the two distributions, wecalculated the finite-sample sizes and size-adjustedpowers for each test, where the sizes were calculatedaccording to the 5% asymptotic critical values, whilethe powers were based on the 5% small samplecritical values in order to control for size distortions.Finally, the p-values of the test statistics for each ofthe estimated processes were also calculated asfollows:p-value of test statistics under the null hypothesis¼ P ^ ^samplej fDSð^Þ ð19Þp-value of test statistics under the alternativehypothesis ¼ P ^ ^samplej fLSð^Þ ð20Þwhere ^ and ^sample are the test statistics calculatedfrom the artificial and actual data; fLSð^Þ and fDSð^Þare the simulated distributions of ^, conditional onthe AR(p) and the AR(p 1) models.Note that instead of using the estimated lags fromthe best-fitting models like Kuo and Mikkola (1999)did, we chose the lag p for the unit root tests with theMAIC in each of the calculations to avoid possiblesize distortions.IV.
đang được dịch, vui lòng đợi..