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Hop Nong: weekly reports Dec 15
Toan Hop Nong
Ðến 'Toan Hop Nong' Hôm nay vào lúc 7:03 PM
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

Corn and soybean prices were up again this week with corn futures prices even getting above the USD 4.00 bushel level which many experts seem to feel is a "magic" number which will start the trend for corn to higher prices – who knows, they could be correct or it may just be bumph.

The USDA WASDE report this week didn't have a major effect on prices as there were no big surprises of startling new facts – but then none had been expected. The December WASDE report has a history of being a non-event.

There were some comments in the market concerning China and its possible approval of MIR162 GM corn which could get US corn back into the China market and then there were some speculations that the Ukraine may not be able to totally fulfill on its corn sales to China – some say that up to one million m/t of corn may not be able to be shipped. The approval of MIR162 would be of real benefit to the US. No one knows how much corn China may import in 2015 but without approval of MIR162 the US would be out of the China corn market.

So, if you believe the experts, US corn prices should now be trending higher (as normally happens after the harvest).

Soybean and soymeal prices for the past few days have not been too exciting – although the futures market has been up and down by USD 15 m/t in a day. Soybean prices were a little higher on the week, both domestic and export, with good export demand still being seen.

The South American weather is still very good and there are no crop concerns at present. So not much reason for any price rallies going into the South American season. Of course, if you watch the futures and cash prices out next April/May you see that soymeal is USD 30 or so m/t lower in price once you get into April. Those who can will try to hold off on buying as long as they can hoping that the US prices drop down to something closer to the South American prices.

The closer we get to the South American soybean harvest the closer US and South American prices will get but, as usual, come April/May South America should be the origin of choice for most buyers.

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) $17.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) $28/29.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) $31/32.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) $34/35.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT $32/33.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) $33/34.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 $33/34.00 Down $1.00 x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t $49/50.00 Steady x
US Gulf Yemen 35/45.000 $48/49.00 Steady X
US Gulf South Africa: 30,000 m/t $37/38.00 Steady x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax(10,000 disch) $44/45.00 Down $2.00 x
US Gulf China: Panamax(8,000 disch) $43/44.00 Down $2.00 x
US PNW Asia: 35/45,000 m/t $35/36.00 Steady x
US PNW Japan: 50,000+ m/t(10,000 disch) $32/33.00 Up $1.00 x
US PNW China: 50,000+ m/t(8,000 d1sch) $29/30.00 Down $1.00 x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax $40/41.00 Up $3.00 x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize $51/52.00 Up $1.00 x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $24/25.00 Steady x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $25/26.00 Steady x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) $30/31.00 Steady x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 $38/39.00 Steady x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) $25/26.00 Steady x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t $45/46.00 Steady x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t $35/36.00 Steady x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t $29/30.00 Down $3.00 X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) $29/31.00 Down $2.00 X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $32/33.00 Steady X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $31/32.00 Steady X
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t $33/34.00 Steady X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia $41.00 Steady x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $29/30.00 Steady x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t $31/32.00 Steady X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off $35/36.00 Down $2.00 x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t $26/27.00 Down $2.00 x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t $33/34.00 Steady x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t $23/24.00 Down $1.00 x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t $25/26.00 Down $1.00 x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia $41/42.00 Steady x
Brazil to Europe $26/27.00 Steady x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t $31/32.00 Down $2.00 x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $21/22.00 Steady x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) $19/21.00 Down $2.00 x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) $15/16.00 Steady X
Black Sea to East Med: coaster $38/39.00 Down $6.00 X
Black Sea to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t $43/44.00 Down $3.00 X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) $14/15.00 Up $1.00 X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k $24/26.00 Up $1.00 x
Black Sea to China $34/36.00 Down $1.00 x
Baltic Dry Index 863 Down 119 x
Baltic Capesize Index 763 Down 519 x
Baltic Panamax Index 1001 Down 87 x
Baltic Supramax Index 950 Down 21 x
Baltic Handisize Index 493 Down 6 x

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

ALL PRICES ARE FOR JAN 2015/MARCH 2015 UNLESS STATED OTHER WISE

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA USD 286>>278 X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein USD 286/289 x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t USD 245/250 x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t USD 259/263 X
Wheat, Romania USD 256/262 x
Wheat, soft milling #1, France, Rouen USD 240/242 X
Wheat, soft milling #2, France, Rouen USD 235/237 X
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver USD 247/254 X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea USD 215/220 X
Wheat Bran, Black Sea USD 170/180 x

Barley, France, Rouen port USD 222/226 X
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver USD 195/204 X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ USD 225/230 X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest USD 250/255 X

Corn, FOB NOLA USA USD 195>>191 X
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest USD 206>>202 X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver USD 195/201 X
Corn, FOB Brazil port USD 190/194 X
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t USD 182/187 X
Corn, FOB France USD 194/199 X
Corn, FOB Romania USD 187/192 x
Sorghum, FOB Texas USD 260/265 X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port USD 190/195 X

Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA USD 495/505 x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam USD 535/555 x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam USD 480/485 x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina USD 450/465 x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam USD 465/470 x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil USD 445/460 x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB USD 650/660 x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA USD 425/435 x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB USD 395>>385 X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB USD 440>>435 X
Soybeans, Rotterdam USD 460>>445 X
Soybeans, Black Sea USD 415/425 x

Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA USD 750/760 m/t x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA USD 190/195 m/t x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA USD 220/225 m/t x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia USD 264/269 m/t X
*** see sources note

Depending on which trade report you read this week DDGS prices are up by USD 10 m/t to as much as USD 20 m/t. Similar price increases are seen in both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed. The rally in corn prices last week was much of the cause but so was good export