-các mối đe dọa an ninh của cyberspace trong lĩnh vực quân sự và dân sự đang gia tăng-trong hai năm ngoái, sự hợp tác quốc tế cần thiết để giải quyết chúng có suffered nghiêm trọng, có lẽ không thể đảo ngược những thất bại-Nếu các cường quốc không nói, chúng ta có một cuộc khủng hoảng toàn cầu cybersecurity Giới thiệu EastWest• Sứ mệnh: để làm cho thế giới một nơi an toàn hơn bằng cách giải quyết các vấn đề intractable dường như đe dọa an ninh khu vực và toàn cầu• Phương pháp: cuộc họp riêng, huy động khu vực xung quanh những ý tưởng chính sách mới• Cyberspace sáng kiến đưa ra vào năm 2010• Làm việc với nhà lãnh đạo chính trị và quân sự ở Nga, Trung Quốc, Ấn Độ, Pakistan, Nhật bản, Đức, UK, Kazakhstan, Hoa Kỳ, EU, SCO, OIC, LHQ, các nhiệm vụ quốc gia để UN• Đối tác với tập đoàn toàn cầu, Phi chính phủ, chuyên gia hàng đầu thế giới Chữ ký Cyber Ấn phẩm (1)• Chiến lược răn đe trong Cyberspace: giảm nguy cơ tài sản hạt nhân dân sự (2010)• Cơ sở thuật ngữ quan trọng (cyber) (hai báo cáo năm 2014, năm 2011) U.S. / nhóm làm việc liên bang Nga• Một biện pháp của các hạn chế trong không gian ảo (2014)• Đặt lại hệ thống (computing)(2013/2014) bảo mật cao• Có hại Hacking (US-¬‐China làm việc group)(2013)• Cyber giảm căng thẳng giữa Hoa Kỳ và Trung Quốc (2012)• Ưu tiên truyền thông quốc tế (cyber) (2012) Chữ ký Cyber Ấn phẩm (2)• Chống thư rác để xây dựng Trust (2011) (US-¬‐China làm việc nhóm)• Đối với quy tắc cho quản Cyber Conflict (2011)• Russia, the United States and Cyber Diplomacy (2010)• Rights and Responsibilities in Cyberspace: Balancing the Need for Security and Liberty (2010)• The Reliability of Global Undersea cable Communications Infrastructure (2010)• Global Cyber Deterrence (2010) TODAY’S DISCUSSION: THREE PARTS• Overview of threat at global level• Multi-¬‐stakeholder responses (case study of civil nuclear power)• Special case of US-¬‐China Relations in cyberspacePART IGLOBAL CYBER THREAT ASSESSMENTSINFORMATION OPERATIONS AND WAR• cyberspace encompasses the entire fabric of strategic command and control, and intelligence dissemination on which national military security depends.• It also encompasses all other digital systems in use that affect military preparedness, including those in critical civil infrastructure.• Cyberspace is not a separate domain of modern warfare. It cuts across all domains.2020 PROJECT OF THE INTERNATIONAL CYBERSECURITY PROTECTION ALLIANCE• Interference with, and criminal misuse of, unmanned vehicles & robotic devices• Electronic attacks on critical infrastructure• Physical attacks against data centres and Internet exchanges• Cyber-¬‐enabled violence against individuals• Highly distributed denial of service attacks using Cloud processing• A mature illicit market for virtual items, both stolen and counterfeit• Bio-¬‐hacks for multi-¬‐factor authentication components• High impact, targeted identity theft• Sophisticated reputation manipulation.NATURE OF CYBERSPACE• global interconnectivity is only two decades old, major actors still learning• private sector in the lead; criminals a close second; governments and police in third• infrastructure is mostly privately owned• no neat boundaries at international level• eight ingredient framework for cyber securityTHREAT ASSESSMENT: AUSTRALIA• “Attacks will become more opportunistic and difficult todetect or predict”• “Threats will become more potent”• “Effects or outcomes of attacks will …. have longer term flow on effects”• “There will be a move from code exploitation to manipulation of data … and the introduction of systemic effects”• security will continue to lag behind the technological potential of attackers and emerging vulnerabilities.THREAT ASSESSMENT: USA• Cyber threats are increasing in frequency, scale, sophistication and severity of effect• Range of threat actors, methods of attack, systems targeted and victims are expanding• Likelihood of a catastrophic attack from any actor is remote• Low-¬‐ to moderate-¬‐level attacks form a range of actors which will impose cumulative costsA FINAL IMAGECHALLENGES FOR POLICY• attribution• any node can be the vector of threat• a single user can deliver strategic threat• private/public divide• national and international• national and non-¬‐nationalRISK MANAGEMENT USA• Increasing threats will hold all systems at risk for years to come• Cyber threat cannot be eliminated• Risks need to be managed• Risk calculus used by some private sector entities does not account for foreign cyber threats or systemic interdependencies between differnett critical infrastructure sectorsFIVE MAIN “BUCKETS”• Military uses of cyberspace• Internal security and cyber surveillance• Critical infrastructure protection• Cyber crime• ICT for peacePART IIMULTI-¬‐STAKEHOLDER RESPONSESG8 Commitment on CI: 2003• Countries should engage in international cooperation, when appropriate, to secure critical information infrastructures, including by developing and coordinating emergency warning systems, sharing and analyzing information regarding vulnerabilities, threats, and incidents, and coordinating investigations of attacks on such infrastructures in accordance with domestic laws.• Countries should promote national and international research and development and encourage the application of security technologies that are certified according to international standards.Multinational Statement on Nuclear Information Security, 27 March 2012Prevent non-¬‐state actors from obtaining information, technology or expertise required to:• acquire or use nuclear materials for malicious purposes• to disrupt information technology control systems at nuclear facilities
The gaps in that threat landscape
• to use information control systems at nuclear facilities for malicious purposes – not just “disrupt” at a facility
• State actors
OTHER POSITIVE RESPONSES
• USG team 2012: existing UN Conventions to be examined to identify ways to “extend their provisions to include domestic and international nuclear cyber-¬‐terrorism”
• At a technical level, IAEA is working to improve international cooperation in cybersecurity for plants
• Some gov’ts, leading corporations and organizations (like WINS) have been promoting international sharing of best practice and capability improvements
• 2015 IAEA Conference on Cyber Security
DIGGING MORE DEEPLY INTO THREAT ANALYSIS
• Stuxnet (Natanz nuclear enrichment) in 2010 is the most widely-¬‐publicized cyber attack on a nuclear facility
• the number of less publicized attacks is increasing
• seven attacks inside the United States reported to the U.S. DHS Industrial Control Systems CERT during the first half of 2013
• many nuclear operators do not report incidents, fearing public backlash or because they are unaware of the attacks
BIGGER PICTURE OF THE THREATS
• Reasonable intergovernmental and specialist consensus on “malicious political purposes” of non-¬‐state actors in acquiring or using nuclear materials – the terrorist scenario and radiation release
• Little consensus on the political purposes of states gaining control of information technology control systems at foreign nuclear facilities
• And how that set of policy issues would link up with the technical requirements for IT security in one plant/facility
ANTICIPATING “CYBER SHOCK”
• No single person knows all the answers
• Need to set in train a process of inquiry and review, building off collective intelligence of a small team of people with diverse backgrounds, led by an outsider who can “Red team” the effort, as in IAEA peer reviews
• Initial review has to the lay the foundation for an enduring Board level strategy of “information integrity and client confidence”, audited regularly
THREE INDUSTRY CONCERNS
• transition from analog to digital operating systems brings with it new cyber vulnerabilities
• the emergence of small modular reactors (SMRs) presents a new security challenge as data is being transferred and stored in remote centralized data centers, making it more vulnerable than quarantined information
• coordinated attack combining cyber and physical elements could increase the likelihood of radiation being released … and greatly impact the effectiveness of attack response
GAPS IN THE POLICY RESPONSE SIDE
• Only 31 parties to the Declaration (Algeria, Australia, Canada, Chile, Czech, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Philippines, Poland, ROK, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, UK, USA, Vietnam)
• Response is limited to info sharing & technical assistance
• Measures for collaboration against terrorist threats
• Almost zero multilateral response for state threats
TWO FRESH IDEAS
• NSS 2014 should open a debate on promoting early agreement that use of technological attacks (including cyber means) against the safe operation of civil nuclear assets in peacetime should be prohibited by a legally binding multilateral instrument
• States should consider the establishment of a multilateral response center for nuclear information security incidents of high severity (Russian proposal)
TWO OLDER, GOOD IDEAS
• States that have not yet signed the 2012 Multinational Statement on Nuclear Information Security should do so at the 2014 Summit and publicize their position
• Prior to the 2014 Summit, states that have signed the 2012 Statement should issue and widely publicize an assessment of their performance against the commitments they made, with a view to demonstrating the value of the agreement to non-¬‐signatories
PART III
CASE OF U.S./CHINA CYBER RELATIONS
Three Connected Themes
• US-¬‐China Information Technology E
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