For this reason, our analysis highlights the benefits for the monetary authority of signaling that the policy interest rate will be used to safeguard the primacy of the inflation target. But if, for example, a sudden surge in capital inflows leads to a large, temporary appreciation of the currency above its medium-term value, and that results in economic dislocation, then some intervention in the foreign exchange (FX) market is likely to be optimal even under an IT regime. The analysis underscores that suchintervention should only be undertaken against shocks that move the exchange rate awayfrom its medium-run multilaterally-consistent value, and that it should be two-way, involving both purchases and sales of FX reserves. Because the central bank would be deploying its second instrument to influence the exchange rate, while adjusting the policy interest rate tomeet its inflation goal, the two-target/twoinstrument regime should not give confusing signals to the public. Moreover, to the extent that inflows are driven by self-fulfilling expectations of currency appreciation, intervention could help to reduce incentives for carry trade and other short-term capital flows.
đang được dịch, vui lòng đợi..