Transport appraisalandMonteCarlosim

Transport appraisalandMonteCarlosimulationbyuseoftheCBA-DKmodel
Kim BangSalling n, SteenLeleur
Department ofTransport(DTUTransport),Building115,TechnicalUniversityofDenmark,DK-2800Lyngby,Denmark
a r t i c l e info
Available online20September2010
Keywords:
Transport appraisal
Risk analysis
Decision supportmodel
Monte Carlosimulation
Optimism bias
Separation ofuncertainty
a b s t r a c t
This paperpresentstheDanishCBA-DKsoftwaremodelforassessmentoftransportinfrastructure
projects.Theassessmentmodelisbasedonbothadeterministiccalculationfollowingthecost-benefit
analysis(CBA)methodologyinaDanishmanualfromtheMinistryofTransportandonastochastic
calculation,whereriskanalysisiscarriedoutusingMonteCarlosimulation.Specialemphasishasbeen
placedontheseparationbetweeninherentrandomnessinthemodelingsystemandlackofknowledge.
Thesetwoconceptshavebeendefinedintermsofvariability(ontologicaluncertainty)anduncertainty
(epistemicuncertainty).Afterashortintroductiontodeterministiccalculationresultinginsome
evaluationcriteriaamorecomprehensiveevaluationofthestochasticcalculationismade.Especially,
the riskanalysispartofCBA-DK,withconsiderationsaboutwhichprobabilitydistributionsshouldbe
used, isexplained.Furthermore,comprehensiveassessmentsbasedonthesetofdistributionsaremade
and implementedbyuseofaDanishcaseexample.Finally,conclusionsandaperspectivearepresented.
& 2010ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.
1. Introduction
Projectappraisalistheprocessofcomparingvirtuesand
deficienciesofaproject.Thetaskistodeterminethecon-
sequencesofaprojectandtohandlethisknowledge.Itis
obviousthataprojectisonlyfeasibleifthevirtuescompensate
forthedeficienciesandthatthebestprojectistheonewherethe
so-callednetgainisthegreatest.Thechallengeistofinda
methodtodescribethecriteriainawaythatmakesthem
comparableandtofindarationalandtrustworthymethodto
comparethecriteria.Traditionally,withintransportappraisalof
infrastructureprojects,acost-benefitanalysis(CBA)isapplied
estimatingandtotalingtheequivalentmoneyvalueofrespec-
tivelythebenefitsandcoststothecommunityofprojectsin
ordertoestablishwhethertheyareapplicabletothesocietyor
not.Extensiveliteratureonthiswell-establishedanddebated
processintransportisavailable—see,forexample Pearmanetal.
(2003), Grant-Mulleretal.(2001), and Leleur(2000). Oneofthe
majorpitfallsintheapplicationofCBAisthelackof
transparency(mostoftenpoliticiansarefacedwithasingle
pointrateofreturn)andthelackofdata(ShortandKopp,2005).
Thus,thedeterministicsinglepointoutputcriteriaaspresented
fromtheCBAapproacharemostoftenbasedupon‘‘bestguess’’
estimatesofeachinputvariabletothemodel.Therefore,theCBA
depictsmoreofamostlikely(modal)valueofthetransport
assessmentschemethantheactualvalue.Therefore,the
methodologicalapproachproposedwithinthispaperisto
supporttheCBAwithariskanalysis(RA)inordertohandle
theembeddedmodeluncertainties.
In DenmarktheviabilityoftheCBAismadeupbythemanualfor
socio-economicanalysispublishedbytheDanishMinistry
of Transportin2003(DMT, 2003).Thismanualisanelaborate
reviewoftheDanishmethodologyandanattempttobring
about aclarifiedandidenticalway ofperformingsocio-economic
analysesforDanishtransportinfrastructure projects.Basedonthe
principlesinthismanual,anExcel-basedsoftwaremodel,CBA-DK,
wasdevelopedaspartofaPhDstudyattheTechnicalUniversityof
Denmark(Salling,2008). TheCBA-DKmodelcontainsasoneofits
featuresariskanalysismoduleinvestigatingtheunderlyingmodel
uncertainties withintheCBA-DKframework(thestochasticmodule
of Fig. 1). Hereby,Danishinfrastructureprojectscanbeappraised
basedbothonadeterministiccalculation,whichfollowstheDanish
manual’sCBAmethodologyanda more elaboratestochastic
calculationwheretheRAmethodology(Vose,2002) isbasedon
Monte Carlosimulation(MCS; Rubinstein,1981) makinguseof
@RISK software(PalisadeCorporation,2007). TheCBA-DKdecision
support modelisdepictedin Fig. 1 and consistsoftwooverall
modules.
This outlineofthepaperisasfollows:afterthisintroduction,
the twotypesofcalculationsaredescribedinSections2and3by
the deterministic(CBAapproach)andthestochasticcalculation
(RA andMCSapproach).Atestcaseexampleisintroducedin
order tocommunicatethefeaturesoftheCBA-DKmodelandthe
results arepresentedinSection4.Finally,Section5presentssome
conclusions andgivesaperspectivetothefurtherworkonthe
development ofthemodel.
Contents listsavailableat ScienceDirect
journalhomepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tranpol
Transport Policy
0967-070X/$ -seefrontmatter & 2010 ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.08.007
n Corresponding author.Tel.:[phone];fax:[phone].
E-mail addresses: [e-mail] (K.B.Salling),[e-mail](S.Leleur).
Transport Policy18(2011)236–245

Kết quả (Việt) 1:

Giao thông vận tải appraisalandMonteCarlosimulationbyuseoftheCBA-DKmodelKim BangSalling n, SteenLeleurVùng ofTransport (DTUTransport), Building115, TechnicalUniversityofDenmark, DK-2800Lyngby, Đan Mạchr t tôi c l e thông tinCó online20September2010Từ khoá:Thẩm định giao thông vận tảiPhân tích rủi roQuyết định supportmodelMonte CarlosimulationLạc quan thiên vịTách ofuncertaintymột b s t r một t cNày paperpresentstheDanishCBA-DKsoftwaremodelforassessmentoftransportinfrastructuredự án. Theassessmentmodelisbasedonbothadeterministiccalculationfollowingthecost-lợi íchphân tích (CBA) methodologyinaDanishmanualfromtheMinistryofTransportandonastochasticcalculation,whereriskanalysisiscarriedoutusingMonteCarlosimulation.Specialemphasishasbeenplacedontheseparationbetweeninherentrandomnessinthemodelingsystemandlackofknowledge.Thesetwoconceptshavebeendefinedintermsofvariability (ontologicaluncertainty) anduncertainty(epistemicuncertainty). Afterashortintroductiontodeterministiccalculationresultinginsomeevaluationcriteriaamorecomprehensiveevaluationofthestochasticcalculationismade. Đặc biệt là,riskanalysispartofCBA-DK, withconsiderationsaboutwhichprobabilitydistributionsshouldbeđược sử dụng, isexplained. Hơn nữa, comprehensiveassessmentsbasedonthesetofdistributionsaremadevà implementedbyuseofaDanishcaseexample.Finally,conclusionsandaperspectivearepresented.& 2010ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.1. giới thiệuProjectappraisalistheprocessofcomparingvirtuesanddeficienciesofaproject. Thetaskistodeterminethecon-sequencesofaprojectandtohandlethisknowledge. ITISobviousthataprojectisonlyfeasibleifthevirtuescompensateforthedeficienciesandthatthebestprojectistheonewheretheVì vậy-callednetgainisthegreatest. Thechallengeistofindamethodtodescribethecriteriainawaythatmakesthemcomparableandtofindarationalandtrustworthymethodtocomparethecriteria. Theo truyền thống, withintransportappraisalofinfrastructureprojects, acost-benefitanalysis (CBA) isappliedestimatingandtotalingtheequivalentmoneyvalueofrespec-tivelythebenefitsandcoststothecommunityofprojectsinordertoestablishwhethertheyareapplicabletothesocietyorkhông. Extensiveliteratureonthiswell-establishedanddebatedprocessintransportisavailable — xem, forexample Pearmanetal.(2003), Grant-Mulleretal. (2001), và Leleur(2000). OneofthemajorpitfallsintheapplicationofCBAisthelackofminh bạch (mostoftenpoliticiansarefacedwithasinglepointrateofreturn)andthelackofdata(ShortandKopp,2005).Vì vậy, thedeterministicsinglepointoutputcriteriaaspresentedfromtheCBAapproacharemostoftenbasedupon'' bestguess''estimatesofeachinputvariabletothemodel. Vì vậy, theCBAdepictsmoreofamostlikely (phương thức) valueofthetransportassessmentschemethantheactualvalue. Vì vậy, cácmethodologicalapproachproposedwithinthispaperistosupporttheCBAwithariskanalysis (RA) inordertohandletheembeddedmodeluncertainties.Trong DenmarktheviabilityoftheCBAismadeupbythemanualforxã hội-economicanalysispublishedbytheDanishMinistrycủa Transportin2003 (DMT, 2003). ThismanualisanelaboratereviewoftheDanishmethodologyandanattempttobringvề aclarifiedandidenticalway ofperformingsocio kinh tếdự án analysesforDanishtransportinfrastructure. Basedontheprinciplesinthismanual, anExcel-basedsoftwaremodel, CBA-DK,wasdevelopedaspartofaPhDstudyattheTechnicalUniversityofDenmark(Salling,2008). TheCBA-DKmodelcontainsasoneofitsfeaturesariskanalysismoduleinvestigatingtheunderlyingmodelsự không chắc chắn withintheCBA-DKframework (thestochasticmodulehình 1). Bằng văn bản này, Danishinfrastructureprojectscanbeappraisedbasedbothonadeterministiccalculation, whichfollowstheDanishmanual'sCBAmethodologyanda elaboratestochastic thêmcalculationwheretheRAmethodology(Vose,2002) isbasedonMonte Carlosimulation (MCS; Rubinstein, 1981) makinguseof@RISK software(PalisadeCorporation,2007). TheCBA-DKdecisionhỗ trợ modelisdepictedin hình 1 và consistsoftwooverallMô-đun.Outlineofthepaperisasfollows:afterthisintroduction này,twotypesofcalculationsaredescribedinSections2and3byandthestochasticcalculation (CBAapproach) xác định(RA andMCSapproach). AtestcaseexampleisintroducedinThứ tự tocommunicatethefeaturesoftheCBA-DKmodelandthekết quả arepresentedinSection4.Finally,Section5presentssomekết luận andgivesaperspectivetothefurtherworkonthephát triển ofthemodel.Nội dung listsavailableat ScienceDirectjournalhomepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tranpolChính sách giao thông vận tải0967-070 x / $ - seefrontmatter & 2010 ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.Doi:10.1016/j.tranpol.2010.08.007n Corresponding author.Tel.:[phone];fax:[phone].Địa chỉ e-mail: [e-mail] (K.B.Salling), [e-mail] (S.Leleur).Vận chuyển Policy18 (2011) 236-245

Kết quả (Việt) 2:

Giao thông vận tải appraisalandMonteCarlosimulationbyuseoftheCBA-DKmodel
Kim BangSalling n, SteenLeleur
cục ofTransport (DTUTransport), Building115, TechnicalUniversityofDenmark, DK-2800Lyngby, Đan Mạch
một thông tin rticle
sẵn online20September2010
Từ khóa:
Giao thông vận tải thẩm định
rủi ro phân tích
Quyết định supportmodel
Monte Carlosimulation
thiên vị lạc
Tách ofuncertainty
một bstract
này riskanalysispartofCBA-DK, withconsiderationsaboutwhichprobabilitydistributionsshouldbe sử dụng, isexplained.Furthermore, comprehensiveassessmentsbasedonthesetofdistributionsaremade và implementedbyuseofaDanishcaseexample.Finally, conclusionsandaperspectivearepresented. & 2010ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved. 1. Pearmanetal. (2003), Grant-Mulleretal. (2001), và Leleur (2000). Transportin2003 (DMT, 2003) .Thismanualisanelaborate reviewoftheDanishmethodologyandanattempttobring về aclarifiedandidenticalway kinh tế ofperformingsocio-analysesforDanishtransportinfrastructure withintheCBA-DKframework (thestochasticmodule của Fig. 1). hơn elaboratestochastic calculationwheretheRAmethodology (Vose, 2002) isbasedon Monte Carlosimulation (MCS; Rubinstein, 1981) makinguseof phần mềmRISK (PalisadeCorporation, 2007). TheCBA-DKdecision hỗ trợ modelisdepictedin hình. 1 và consistsoftwooverall. Module này outlineofthepaperisasfollows: afterthisintroduction, các twotypesofcalculationsaredescribedinSections2and3by các xác định (CBAapproach) andthestochasticcalculation (RA andMCSapproach) .Atestcaseexampleisintroducedin để tocommunicatethefeaturesoftheCBA-DKmodelandthe quả arepresentedinSection4.Finally, Section5presentssome kết luận andgivesaperspectivetothefurtherworkonthe ofthemodel phát triển. Nội dung listsavailableat ScienceDirect journalhomepage: www.elsevier.com/ xác định vị trí / tranpol Chính sách Giao thông vận tải 0967-070X / $ -seefrontmatter & 2010 ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved. doi: 10,1016 / j.tranpol.2010.08.007 n Tương ứng author.Tel: + 4545251548; fax:.. [phone] địa chỉ E-mail: kbs @ ctt.dtu.dk (KBSalling), sl @ ctt.dtu.dk (S.Leleur). Giao thông vận tải Policy18 (2011) 236-245