Gold futures have lost some of thei

Gold futures have lost some of their luster over the past few weeks as some market participants set aside their fears and took on more risk, says optionsXpress. “The stronger U.S. dollar has driven commodity prices broadly lower, lessening gold’s appeal,” the firm says. “Oil prices are more than $5 off recent highs, which likely has led to some traders limiting their commodity exposure. Gold traders also are concerned that tomorrow’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) policy decision could include a statement with a slightly hawkish tilt.” Some traders feel the recent gold decline may have created a buying opportunity, the firm notes. Uncertainty over the U.S. presidential election and the Brexit fallout, along with the geopolitical climate, “seem to favor the yellow metal.” Still, the firm adds, others believe the recent run-up was “due to the metal being overinflated and overbought” in the lead-up to Brexit. The Comex December futures fell from a July 6 high of $1,384.4 an ounce to several recent lows slightly on either side of $1,320.

By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; [e-mail]



TDS: Gold Has Upside Potential Despite Large Spec Net Length
Tuesday July 26, 2016 09:01

Upside potential remains in gold despite the already-large net-long position among speculators, says TD Securities. Some fear that the heavily bullish position among futures speculators sets the stage for a fall in prices since specs may have no new money left to enter the trade, TDS explains. However, TDS continues, considering low or sometimes negative global government bond yields, the interest-rate environment “supports an overweight gold portfolio allocation.” Further, TDS did analysis looking at the market value of the bullish gold contracts, rather than the total number of positions. “Without factoring in the impact of inflation on the dollar amount, we can see that positioning is still quite elevated on a market value basis, but not astronomically higher, as the number of contracts might suggest when measured in isolation,” TDS says. “Essentially, with gold prices at lower levels, mathematically it makes sense that a greater number of contracts would be needed to reach similar market value levels.” And, analysts continue, as the number of long positions has increased over the years, so have global investment portfolio assets generally. When looking at gold spec longs as a percentage of total global stock and bond portfolios, the 0.56% proportion with prices at $1,366 an ounce means gold holdings do not look “completely out of whack.” The bottom line is analysts say gold near $1,316 – roughly where gold at the time of their research report – is a “decent entry level,” with a target back up to $1,375 or maybe even $1,400, “especially if there is a return to disappointment” in the economy and “global real yields head even more negative.”

Kết quả (Việt) 1:

Tương lai vàng đã mất một số vẻ đẹp rực rỡ của họ trong vài tuần qua là thị trường một số người tham gia đặt sang một bên nỗi sợ của họ và đã trên nguy cơ nhiều hơn, nói optionsXpress. "Đồng đô la Mỹ mạnh đã thúc đẩy giá cả hàng hóa thấp hơn rộng rãi, làm giảm hấp dẫn của vàng," các công ty nói. "Giá dầu là hơn $5 off tại mức cao, có khả năng đã dẫn đến một số thương nhân hạn chế tiếp xúc hàng hóa của họ. Vàng thương nhân cũng đang quan tâm rằng ngày mai FOMC (Ủy ban thị trường mở liên bang) quyết định chính sách có thể bao gồm một tuyên bố với một nghiêng một chút hawkish." Một số thương cảm thấy sự suy giảm vàng tại có thể đã tạo ra một cơ hội mua các ghi chú công ty. Không chắc chắn hơn Hoa Kỳ bầu cử tổng thống và bụi phóng xạ Brexit, cùng với khí hậu địa chính trị, "có vẻ ưu tiên các kim loại màu vàng." Tuy nhiên, các công ty cho biết thêm, những người khác tin rằng run-up tại "do kim loại đang được overinflated và overbought" trong dẫn lên tới Brexit. Tương lai Comex ngày giảm từ một 6 7 cao của $1,384.4 một ounce để một số tại thấp nhẹ ở hai bên của $1.320.Bởi Allen Sykora của Kitco News; [e-mail] TDS: Vàng có lộn ngược tiềm năng mặc dù lớn chiều dài Spec NetThứ ba 26 tháng 7 năm 2016 09:01Upside potential remains in gold despite the already-large net-long position among speculators, says TD Securities. Some fear that the heavily bullish position among futures speculators sets the stage for a fall in prices since specs may have no new money left to enter the trade, TDS explains. However, TDS continues, considering low or sometimes negative global government bond yields, the interest-rate environment “supports an overweight gold portfolio allocation.” Further, TDS did analysis looking at the market value of the bullish gold contracts, rather than the total number of positions. “Without factoring in the impact of inflation on the dollar amount, we can see that positioning is still quite elevated on a market value basis, but not astronomically higher, as the number of contracts might suggest when measured in isolation,” TDS says. “Essentially, with gold prices at lower levels, mathematically it makes sense that a greater number of contracts would be needed to reach similar market value levels.” And, analysts continue, as the number of long positions has increased over the years, so have global investment portfolio assets generally. When looking at gold spec longs as a percentage of total global stock and bond portfolios, the 0.56% proportion with prices at $1,366 an ounce means gold holdings do not look “completely out of whack.” The bottom line is analysts say gold near $1,316 – roughly where gold at the time of their research report – is a “decent entry level,” with a target back up to $1,375 or maybe even $1,400, “especially if there is a return to disappointment” in the economy and “global real yields head even more negative.”