Recent results and the futureSince the middle of the twentieth century, the contest to form the government has effectively been a straight fight between the Labour and Conservative parties. As a general rule, the north of England and most of the inner areas of English cities return Labour MPs to Westminster, while the south of England and most areas outside the inner cities have a Conservative MR Which of these two parties forms the government depends on which one does better in the suburbs and large towns of England.Scotland used to be good territory for the Conservatives. This changed, however, during the 1980s and the vast majority of MPs from there now represent Labour. Wales has always returned mostly Labour MPs. Since the 1970s, the respective nationalist parties in both countries (see chapter 6) have regularly won a few seats in Parliament.Traditionally, the Liberal party was also relatively strong in Scot¬land and Wales (and was sometimes called the party of the 'Celtic fringe'). Its modern successor, the Liberal Democrat party (see chapter 6), is not so geographically restricted and has managed to win some seats all over Britain, with a concentration in the south-west of England.Northern Ireland always has about the same proportion of Protestant Unionist MPs and Catholic Nationalist MPs (since the 1970 s, about two-thirds the former, the third the latter). The only element of uncertainty is how many seats the more extremist (as opposed to the more moderate) parties will win on either side of this invariant political divide (see chapter 12).
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