National unsafe abortion incidence was estimated from hospital data by simulating the now wellknown hospitalization complications method (HCM).23,24 The abortion–birth ratio in hospitals is adjusted for spontaneous abortions that occur at 13–22 weeks of gestation that may require hospital treatment. Women who have a miscarriage before 13 weeks gestation rarely need hospital care. Using modified life-table data Singh and Wulf 25 estimated that the number of pregnancies ending in spontaneous abortion within 13–22 weeks of gestation corresponds to 3.41% of all live births. It is further assumed that the percentage of women with spontaneous abortion who are hospitalized is approximately equal to the percentage of women who deliver in a hospital in a given country. The hospital unsafe abortion ratio so derived – the “tip of the iceberg” – is further adjusted based on the evidence that most unsafe induced abortions do not lead to complications requiring hospitalization; therefore a multiplier of between 2 and 725–29 is applied to the hospital unsafe abortion ratio to arrive at an estimate of the national unsafe abortion ratio.a The multiplier is implemented from the abovementioned studies in various locations on the basis of similarity to a country with a known multiplier. Generally, the magnitude of the multiplier implies that the lower the risk to women’s health that is associated with unsafe abortions in a country, the higher the multiplier will be. The calculated abortion ratio is finally converted into an abortion rate, based on UNPD estimates of the numbers of women aged 15–44 years, and of births, for that year. 21In some instances, data for hospital abortion admissions were available from public and/or private hospitals, but not the corresponding number of births.30–32 Using recent data on the percentage of births taking place in private and/or public hospitals the corresponding number of births was estimated from UN estimates of the number of births in the country in the actual year.21 The ensuing abortion ratio was then corrected for spontaneous abortions and for unsafe abortions not requiring hospital care to arrive at a national unsafe abortion incidence, applying the methodology described above.The percentage of deliveries that take place in hospitals33 is important not only for calculation of estimates but also for understanding the access to services and hospital seeking behaviour of women who had an unsafe abortion and experienced complications. This is further discussed in Chapter 3 of the main text. 3.1.2. Survey dataWomen are often reluctant to report having had an induced abortion, especially when its availability is restricted by law. However, surveys show that substantial underreporting occurs even where abortion is both accessible and available within the legal framework.34–37 It is not clear whether the non-reporting in these circumstances is due to perceived social stigma. It appears though that early pregnancy terminations and events occurring some time back in the past are less frequently reported perhaps due to memory lapse.38 When abortions are clandestine, women tend to underreport induced abortions in surveys despite assurance of confidentiality, or may only admit to a spontaneous abortion (miscarriage).39,40 Data from surveys therefore have to be adjusted for underreporting and spontaneous abortion has to be accounted for when included.
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