The economic environment in the US was recently “jolted” by subprime mortgage losses, the tightening of the credit market and the lowering of interest rates. These factors combined have resulted in a weakening of the US dollar, which in turn has put upward pressure on the gold price as investors see gold as a safe-haven.• We believe the US dollar and the oil price have become key drivers for gold in the current environment. The oil price is currently hovering at record levels and analysts believe it is likely to break through the US$100/b level in the near future. Higher oil prices will likely result in inflationary pressures, which in turn will likely result in upward pressure on the gold price because of gold’s use as an inflation hedge.Geopolitical tensions have heightened with possible cross-border operations of Turkish troops to hunt down Kurdish separatists in Iraq and tensions are increasing between the US and Iran. Geopolitical tensions lead to increased upward pressure in the gold price and volatility.
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