Disadvantages of Exchange-Rate TargetingDespite the inherent advantages of exchange-rate targeting, there are several serious criticisms of this strategy. The problem (as we saw earlier in the chapter) is that with capital mobility the targeting country can no longer pursue its own independent mon— etary policy and use it to respond to domestic stocks that are independent of those hit—ting the anchor country. Furthermore, an exchange-rate target means that shocks to the anchor country are directly transmitted to the targeting coutry, because changes in interest rates in the anchor country lead to a corresponding change in interest rates in the targeting country.A striking example of these pioblems occurred when Germany was reunited in 1990. In response to concerns about inflationary pressures arising from reunification and the massive fiscal expansion required to rebuild East Germany, long—term German inter—est rates rose until February 1991 and short—term rates rose until December 1991. This shock to the anchor country in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) was transmitted directly to the other countries in the ERM whose currencies were pegged to the mark, and their interest rates rose in tandem with those in Germany. Continuing adherence to the exchange—rate target slowed economic growth and increased unemployment in coun—tries such as France that remained in the ERM and adhered to the exchange—rate peg.A second problem with exchange—rate targets is that they leave countries open to speculative attacks on their currencies. Indeed, one aftermath of German reunification was the foreign exchange crisis of September 1992. As we saw earlier, the tight mone—tary policy in Germany following reunification meant that the countries in be ERM were subjected to a negative demand shock that led to a decline in economic growth and a rise in unemployment. It was certainly feasible for the governments of these coun—tries to keep their exchange rates feed relative to the mark in these circumstances, but speculators began to question whether these countries' commitment to the exchange-rate peg would weaken. Speculators reasoned that these countries would not tolerate the rise in unemployment resulting from keeping interest rates high enough to fend off attacks on their currencies.
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