Modelling and Forecasting Conditional Covariances: DCC and Multivariate GARCHMassimo GuidolinDept. of Finance, Bocconi University1. IntroductionIn chapter 5 we have made additional progress in our stepwise distribution modeling (SDM) approach, i.e.:1. Establish a variance forecasting model for each of the assets individually and introduce methods for evaluating the performance of these forecasts, which occurred in chapter 4;2. Consider ways to model conditionally non-normal aspects of the return distribution of the assets in our portfolio–i.e., aspects that are not captured by time series models of conditional means and variances, which has been the focus of chapter 5.
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